Numbers game: Ben Hill analyses elimination-style Esports Worlds

Zwift is, by definition, a numbers game.

How many watts you produce, and how many kilograms you weigh: those are the statistical pillars of virtual racing.

But for this year’s UCI Cycling Esports World Championships, there’s a lot more to consider. That’s because organisers have overhauled the event.

The first two editions of the World Championships were copy-paste jobs from road racing: first to the finish is the winner. Simple, familiar, vanilla.

This Sunday, we’ll see a vastly different event over three races:

• Round 1: first 30 riders progress. The rest are eliminated.
• Round 2: first 10 riders progress. The other 20 are eliminated.
• Round 3: at every intermediate sprint, the last rider is eliminated, until the final three sprint for the medals.

The new format brings forth a whole gamut of tactical questions.

Do you sacrifice teammates to get your best rider through? Or do you spread your eggs across many baskets?

In the finale, what are your plans if you have multiple riders – or worse, if other nations have the numbers? Does one rider work for another? Do you try a long breakaway? Do you back your sprint? This event has more permutations than a Rubik’s Cube.

Canberran rider Ben Hill is (relatively speaking) an old hand at this new game. He rode for Australia in both World Championships, finishing at the pointy end each time: fifth and fourth place.

He’ll line up again this weekend, and he thinks strength in numbers will be a major advantage.

“The first race is more or less flat. It has a few rolling hills, but it’s short. The last 600 metres is slightly uphill, so I’m expecting it to be a sprint finish,” Hill says in an interview with AusCycling.

“There are a little under 100 starters and 30 go through to the next round. So, our ambition is to get as many riders as we can through.”

This will be Ben Hill's third Esports World Championship: a perfect attendance record.

But, as confident as he is about a bunch sprint, Hill says it won’t be that simple. That’s because success doesn’t depend on crossing the line first.

“In the Zwift Grand Prix, where they’ve done this elimination format, there have been a few breakaways succeed because you don’t have to win, and the big guys are confident they can still get top 20,” he says. “So, we need to be attentive if there are breakaways.”

After round one, teams will have only a few moments to count their casualties before the climbing-heavy round two.

“There’s only a 10-minute turnaround before the start of the next race, so not a lot of time to make a plan with not knowing what riders you have,” Hill says.

“Being tough from the gun, I don’t think there’s much opportunity for a break to get away because everyone’s going to be ready for it. It won’t be tactical; it will just be the best riders getting away. It’ll whittle down to the 10 strongest guys, basically.”

Hill placed 5th in 2020 and 4th in 2022, the year Jay Vine won it for Australia.

And from there? Who knows.

“The final’s the opposite of round two in that it will be very tactical, I think,” Hill says. “The format of 10 guys, one rider getting eliminated every 1.5km until it’s down to three, it’s going to be brutal if you’re sprinting every time.

“I just imagine a little group’s going to ride away. You’re going to have to be able to sprint to not get eliminated, but a strong guy will win it, I think.

“All the races are 10-minute races. You don’t have to be good for long, but you definitely have to do a lot of efforts.”

By weight of numbers, the bigger nations are the favourites – those with the most cards to play.

In the women’s event, the advantage lies with Great Britain, which has qualified 12 riders. Sweden has eight, USA and Germany have seven, and the Dutch team of defending champion Loes Adegeest has six. Australia will have four starters after Bre Vine and Katie Banerjee were forced to withdraw.

For the men, look to Belgium (nine riders), Germany (six riders) and the formidable USA squad, which has 11 on the start list. Australia will have six, after defending champion Jay Vine was unable to start.

Australia will have six men and four women in the 2023 World Championships.

“Just having more numbers in the final would be the goal for a country,” Hill says.

“Having Jay there, he would have been a strong card to play. He will be a big loss for the team, because although we couldn’t guarantee he was going to win – I don’t think you could say that for anyone with this format – you’d probably put your money on whoever has the most riders.

“America has a lot of the top Zwifters and they have mass numbers on the start line, and Denmark has a good depth. I think Germany, Jason Osborne will be tough to beat. And there’s Lionel Vujasin from Belgium, they’re a good team as well.”

As for Hill’s own chances, the 33-year-old has modest expectations, despite his good track record.

“Through my whole cycling career, I’ve been particularly good at a niche of a short, punchy climb. In road cycling in Australia I haven’t been able to show myself too much, because we don’t have that finish often.

“Lucky for me, the two ‘Zwift Worlds’ prior have been short punchy uphill finishes. I was lucky that the format suited me to a ‘T’.

“Also, in road cycling, I feel like compared to the pros, I fatigue at the end of four hours. But, compared to Zwifters, I’m really strong as the race goes on. So, having Zwift races that have been over an hour, it’s a bit of an attritional effort that’s suited me.

Hill says it's hard to know exactly what it will take to win this year's World Championship.

"But, this year, it being so short and being less of my niche, I’m not as confident that it suits me so well.”

This year’s routes, which are modelled on the roads of Scotland, were only released to the public this month. That’s made it more difficult for Hill to prepare.

“I’ve prided myself on being able to train specifically for an event, and sort of adapt, but for this ‘Zwift Worlds’, it’s been difficult to know exactly what that is.

“A; with us not knowing until one month before the race what the routes are, and B; you can’t just bank your effort on that last four-minute climb. You have to get through the first two stages, and you don’t know if the final stage will be won by someone who can do a lot of repeats, or someone who will ride away for 10 minutes.

“You don’t know what tools you need to win, which kinds of makes it a bit exciting – but also, I don’t know if I’m ready.”

The 2023 UCI Cycling Esports World Championships will be held this Sunday, February 19 from 5am AEDT. To find out how to watch, read AusCycling’s event preview.

Photos: Flynn Hopkins